The Future of International Relations

Sofia Khazova

Professor Farmer

 20

5 May 2023

Exit Test: The Future of International Relations

            At the end of the World War Two Nazi Germany was defeated. Japan and Italy surrendered becoming occupied territories. France and Britain experienced post-war political and economic turmoil. Never recovering the status of all-powerful empires, they once were. It resulted in the transition from the international system of pre-World War One multipolarity into post-World War Two bipolarity. The two hegemonic countries, the USSR and the USA, divided the planet into two constantly competing worlds. The spheres of influence were clearly assigned and maintained. This situation has persisted for almost 50 years, but with the collapse of the Soviet Union, the world entered a new era of unipolar system of international relations. Suddenly the United States became the one and only hegemon. It no longer had any worthy rivals on a global level. Theoretically, in this unipolar system, the United States is, and will remain, the single center of global influence. And according to facts the United States is that hegemon. For example, it spends $500 billion annually on the Armed Forces. American land, air and naval forces are the most powerful and efficient on the planet. The United States economy, with a GDP of about 14 trillion, is the largest in the world. American film and television are watched and loved by all people. American companies have little competition in innovation and technology. However, at this moment, the status of the United States as the only hegemon is in the "challenging phase". Several powerful nation states such as China, Russia, and India can easily be compared to the United States in terms of power, influence, and resources. At present, international relations are characterized by dynamic development, variety of different actors, and unpredictability. While the role of the United States on the global arena continues to further decrease, we can expect rise of a new hegemon, a non-polar world, or rise of the rest.

            China is the most likely country to take the place of the United States as the world’s next hegemon. According to the realists the plausible future of the international relations is the war between the two most powerful nations, in the current reality of things, between the United States and China. Manly because “China is a rising power with high expectations, unresolved grievances and an undemocratic government.” (Betts and Christiansen, 647). After World War Two, China was considered one of the poorest countries in the world. Its population suffered from frequent famines, lacked adequate housing, education, medicine, and employment. But after the failure of the Cultural Revolution, the communist government initiated a series of comprehensive economic and social reforms. In less than 30 years China grew into an economic giant. It has no competitors in production, trade, agriculture, and investment attractiveness. Analysts and financial observers believe that in a few years China will become a leader not only in the production of goods but will also overtake the United States in science and technology. In 2018 President Donald Trump initiated the protectionist policy towards Chinese goods to contain the growth of China and save American industries. It angered China and significantly worsened the relationship between two countries. Another root cause for a possible armed conflict can be Taiwan. The United States government has committed itself to protection of islands independence and democratic values. The US-China competition is an ideological and economic battle that one day can turn into a full-scale conflict if not addressed properly.

            Chinese - American relations are experiencing an unprecedented decline since the Cold War but it does not mean conflict is the only plausible future of the international relations. The fear of war can result in more cooperation and establishment of international institutions.  According to Haass we live in a non-polar world which is characterized by numerous centers with meaningful power. At first glance, the current world may seem multipolar. The main centers of power are European Union, India, China, Russia, the USA and Japan. These nations are home to a little more than half of the total population of the Earth. They account for 75% of the World's Gross Domestic product (GDP). But the world today is fundamentally different from the world of the era of classical multipolarity: there are many more "power centers", and many of them are not nation-states. Power is now dispersed, and regional and global organizations can compete with states. A few examples of these organizations are the United Nations, European Union, World Health Organization, Al-Qaeda, and even drag cartels. Some can specialize in improving the world, others might want to destroy it. In addition to the main world power centers there are many regional ones. For example, in Latin America it’s Brazil and Mexico, in Africa it’s Nigeria and South Africa, and in the Middle East it’s Israel and Saudi Arabia.